huge missile attack and drone attack in Israel, which began late on April 13, moved the conflict between the two countries into a potentially explosive new phase. For decades, Israel and Iran have fought over shadow war, attack each other mostly quietly, and in the case of Iran, often by proxy. That changed following Iran’s response to the April 1 attack, which it blamed on Israel, which killed several Iranian officers in Syria. Israel’s response to the missile and drone attacks could determine whether the next stage becomes a full-scale war.
Israeli forces have a huge technological advantage over Iranian forces. This is partly due to military and financial support from the US, which has long sought to ensure Israel’s advantage as part of its commitment to the security of the Jewish state. For example, Israel is currently the only state in the Middle East that has purchased the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet, the most expensive weapons system in history.
Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, although it has never acknowledged this capability.
Instead, sanctions and political isolation have made it difficult for Iran to access foreign military technology, forcing it to develop its own weapons, including the missiles and drones it launched on Saturday. Iran’s combat aircraft are mostly old models inherited from the 1979 revolution. It has been agreed to buy Russian aircraft, but it is unknown whether they will be delivered.
Despite the technological disadvantage, the Iranian military is believed to have significant stockpiles of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, which it deployed against Israel on April 13.
As Iran has learned, breaking through Israel’s significant air defense system is no easy task. Israeli Air Force fighters pass. In addition, there are Israeli air defense systems “Strela” and “David’s Sling”, which, together with the US and other allied forces The Israeli military says it has intercepted the “vast majority” of more than 200 drones and missiles fired by Iran.
Tehran’s arsenal also includes surface-to-air missiles, including the Russian S-300 air defense system, but these are not as battle-tested as Israel’s defenses. Iran accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane in 2020 amid heightened tensions with the United States, using a Russian-made Tor air defense missile.
Both Israel and Iran have cyber warfare capabilities. More than ten years ago, malware known as Stuxnet compromised operations at an Iranian nuclear fuel enrichment plant, presumably as part of a US-Israeli operation. According to a Defense Intelligence Agency assessment released April 11, Iran is capable of conducting “a range of cyber operations, from information operations to disruptive attacks on government and commercial networks around the world.” computers and water supply for two Israeli regions, in accordance with Council on Foreign Relations.
Who are their allies?
Iran’s most important allies are Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, which he supports with money, weapons and training. Lebanese police HezbollahIran, which fired missiles at Israeli targets during Iran’s attack on Israel on April 13, would be able to play the most significant role in a full-scale war. It has fought repeatedly with Israel and has regularly fired rockets, mortars and missiles at northern Israel since war broke out between Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group in October. Palestinian group Hamas. Hezbollah Arsenal According to Israeli intelligence, there are more than 70,000 rockets and rockets on its territory, including long-range and precision-guided missiles.
Iran-backed Yemen Houthi rebels will likely want to play a role in the larger war. Since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas, they have attempted to strike Israel with missiles and drones, and have also disrupted traffic in the Red Sea by repeatedly attacking ships there.
Iran’s only state ally in the Middle East is Syria. The government of President Bashar al-Assad is unlikely to be able to provide assistance, given that it is still trying my best to gain control throughout the country since the outbreak of civil war in 2011.
Iran has good relations with Russia, although a war with Ukraine will likely limit its ability to help, and with China, which has bought Iranian oil although remains under US and allied sanctions.
The US and UK are on Israel’s side. The US has already accelerated supplies of ammunition to Israel to help it fight Hamas. U.S. forces in the Middle East region include two Navy destroyers that moved to the eastern Mediterranean in early April: the USS Carney and the USS Arleigh Burke, both capable of air defense, according to a Navy official.
At the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, the Pentagon deployed its newest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and its battle group to the eastern Mediterranean. He has since returned home. Dwight D. Eisenhower’s carrier strike group departs from operations against the Houthis. Each of them is replete with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and other modern aircraft. In addition, 2,000 Marines were placed on high alert in case of possible mobilization.
The UK Ministry of Defense has deployed Royal Air Force aircraft to help intercept an Iranian attack on Israel.
How might Arab states react?
A war between Israel and Iran will put many countries in the region in a difficult position. Four Arab countries have done peace agreements with Israel in 2020 through the so-called Abraham Accords. Their mistrust of Iran was part of what put them together. But it is unlikely that any Arab state would side with Israel in a confrontation against another Muslim country, let alone one as powerful as Iran.
Iran and Saudi Arabia last year restored diplomatic relations after a seven-year freeze. Saudi Arabia is exploring the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel as part of a broader deal in which it hopes to receive US security guarantees and is likely to try to avoid being drawn into the conflict.