Investing.com – Momentum for the clean energy transition is now strong enough for global oil demand to peak before 2030, according to a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency last October.
The IEA predicts that the share of oil and coal in global energy supply will fall to 73% by the end of the current decade, down from longstanding levels of around 80%.
“This is an important shift,” the IEA noted.
However, Goldman Sachs analysts say they take a “more optimistic” view of oil’s prospects. They now forecast oil demand will rise to 108.5 million barrels per day by 2030, up from a previous estimate of 106 mb/d.
Peak oil demand, they added, will occur by 2034 at 110 million barrels per day, followed by a long plateau until 2040.
Among petroleum products, demand for gasoline will peak in four years, and for middle distillates – diesel and jet fuel – in the “mid-2030s.” At the regional level, emerging markets in Asia are projected to account for most of the growth in global oil demand.
Part of the reason for these prospects is recent stagnation in electric vehicle sales, a trend that Goldman Sachs analysts say raises the possibility of slow adoption of non-motor fuel engines. Under this scenario, oil demand could continue to rise to around 113 million barrels per day by 2040.
“The EV market is facing some headwinds: EV subsidies are being cut in some European markets, and ongoing price competition has depressed OEM profits and slowed the pace of OEM investment in new EVs,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note. clients.
Meanwhile, supply is expected to remain tight over the medium term, due in part to slowing capital spending on manufacturing and related products.
Based on its analysis, Goldman Sachs forecast an “elevated” future price range of $75 to $90 per barrel.