Shares of Finnish oil refiner Neste Oyj fell more than 13% on Wednesday after the company warned that its like-for-like margin on sales of renewable products this year would be lower than previously expected.
In a statement late Tuesday, the biofuel producer and refiner revised its profitability forecast to $480 to $650 a tonne, down from a previous forecast of $600 to $800 a tonne.
The remaining recommendations for the Renewable Products division and the Petroleum Products division remained unchanged.
“The sales price outlook for renewable products is impacted by lower market prices for diesel fuel and continued declines in bioticket and revolving credit prices in the U.S. in the second quarter, while waste and residual feedstock prices remain stable,” the company said.
Assuming no change to consensus sales estimates and using the midpoint of its current guidance range, Neste could face a potential negative impact to its EBITDA of around 300 million euros, Morgan Stanley estimated on Tuesday.
This is approximately 11% below the group’s 2024 consensus EBITDA of €2.7 billion.
Analysts also highlighted that the current forecast range of $480-650 per ton for 2024 is below consensus expectations of around $696 per ton in 2025 and $675 per ton in 2026.
“Neste previously cited increased order volumes and SAF growth as key drivers for the year-on-year increase in sales margins. However, given the current downgrade of the 2024 ratings, we expect downward revisions to the 2025/26 return on sales estimates as well,” the analysts wrote.
remove advertising
.