- Hayes projected that BTC could dump during the halving event.
- However, Peter Brandt expects a dump only after a slight pump.
Bitcoin [BTC] extended its recovery and hit $72.7K, just an inch away from its mid-March record high of $73.7K. The extra recovery saw more bears punished as liquidations of short positions spiked.
With less than two weeks into the Bitcoin halving event, some market watchers predict a correction while others project a possible dump around the event.
BitMEX exchange founder, Arthur Hayes, sees April as excellent for short trade positions due to the incoming liquidity crunch. In a recent blog post, Hayes noted;
“The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs. That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general, will slump around the halving.”
Hayes added,
“Given that the halving occurs at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than usual, it will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets.”
BTC halving event: Will price slump or pump?
However, Peter Brandt and Benjamin Cowen had similar but different forecasts for BTC price during the halving event compared to Hayes.
According to Brandt and Cowen, BTC could follow a similar trend to the spot BTC ETF launch. If so, we could witness a price pump and a dump afterward.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Brandt projected the dump could happen in the second half of April, towards May.
Based on the projection, the dump could ease in early May, similar to what Hayes thinks could be the best time to resume trading. Part of Hayes’s post read;
“The timing of the halving adds further weight to my decision to abstain from trading until May.”
AMBcrypto’s evaluation of Open Interest (OI) data from Coinglass showed that OI fluctuated between $31 billion and $36 billion since mid-March. For the unfamiliar, open interest rates indicate the number of open futures contracts and, by extension, show liquidity levels in the futures market.
The sideway movement in OI corresponds with the BTC price consolidation around the previous cycle’s all-time high. A sharp drop in the metric could confirm Hayes’ bias on a dip in liquidity.
However, caution should be key as we head into the halving event.