As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Strategas analysts suggest the election is turning into a referendum on President Biden’s first term.
“Four years ago the election was a referendum on Trump. Today’s election is a referendum on Biden,” analysts say.
They explain that historically, presidents have difficulty getting re-elected when voters view the election as a verdict on their original term. Successful re-election campaigns often frame elections as a choice between the incumbent and a less favorable challenger.
The firm notes that current opinion polls show more voters believe Trump will handle their economic situation better than Biden. Those sentiments are reflected in key swing states where Trump is leading.
But analysts say election campaigns are dynamic and Biden is adjusting his strategy to make the election a choice rather than a referendum.
The firm says that in an effort to turn the tide, Biden is expected to highlight Trump’s criminal convictions, arguing that it makes him unfit to be president. They also emphasize that Biden’s recent policy moves are part of his strategy.
“Democratic economists are reporting that Trump will do worse on inflation than Biden due to the deficit, tariffs, Fed politicization and border closures,” analysts said. “Will this work? In some cases, such as the border, this may be too little, too late. In other cases, such as with inflation, is economic research more powerful than what people feel? more important than the belief itself.”
Ultimately, the effectiveness of Biden’s strategy will depend on his ability to convince key swing voters that Trump will worsen current problems. As analysts note, “the president’s approval rating is the metric that will determine whether Biden succeeds in turning the election from a referendum into one with key swing voters.”