- Decreasing net positions could fuel a rally for the token.
- While volatilty increased, the AO showed that AVAX might slip below $45 before a potential recovery.
Losing 8.83% of its value in the last 24 hours led Avalanche’s [AVAX] price to decline below $50. However, AMBCrypto’s analysis showed that the collapse might not last long.
The reason for this prediction could be found in the total Open Interest (OI). OI tracks the net positioning of traders. An increase in the OI suggests that traders are opening new contracts.
Sellers have overstretched AVAX
On the other hand, a decrease indicates a surge in the closure of net positions. At press time, AVAX’s OI had fallen to $352.81 million, indicating liquidity outflows from the derivatives market.
But when placed side by side with the price, the decreasing OI could be good news. This is because the lack of interest alongside the plunging value was a sign that the downtrend was getting weak.
Source: Santiment
Should the indicator continue to fall, the convergence could cause an impulsive move that could trigger AVAX back above $50.
Apart from the derivative data, AMBCrypto checked the cryptocurrency’s momentum. Per the 4-hour timeframe, Santiment showed that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 26.40.
A reading like this implied that AVAX was oversold. As such, if buying pressure appears, the price of the token might skyrocket within a short period.
Furthermore, we looked at the one-day volatility on-chain. At press time, the volatility had spiked from the lows it was on the 1st of April. This massive move suggests that the token might undergo significant price fluctuations.
If the market condition becomes extremely bearish, the price might plunge harder than it has. However, the signal displayed by the OI as discussed above implied that the bearish bias could be invalidated soon.
Not so fast
According to the 4-hour AVAX/USD chart, the Supertrend continued to display a sell signal. This indicates that the price of the token might drop further below $47.10.
However, traders might find an entry around $43.71 if the price drops that low. The Money Flow Index (MFI) was another indicator AMBcrypto evaluated.
At press time, the MFI was at an oversold region, sparking speculation that AVAX could soon rebound. If the market stabilizes, a highly bullish scenario could drive the token upward by 21.70%.
If this is the case, the value of the token might hit $58.48 within the next few weeks.
Source: TradingView
Realistic or not, here’s AVAX’s market cap in DOGE terms
In addition, the Awesome Oscillator (AO), was in the negative region, indicating increasing downward momentum.
Assuming the momentum continues to decrease, AVAX’s price might follow and possibly drop below $45. However, bulls might put a stop to the correction as sellers might also get exhausted.